1 ano após greve dos caminhoneiros, economistas apontam incertezas que ainda persistem

A greve dos caminhoneiros, que durou 11 dias e cujo início completa um ano nesta terça-feira (21), gerou fortes impactos sobre o crescimento da economia em 2018. Embora os resultados imediatos da paralisação tenham ficado para trás, as fragilidades que foram expostas ainda afetam a confiança e atrapalham a frágil recuperação da economia.

“A greve mostrou uma fragilidade da economia brasileira, a de ser muito dependente do transporte rodoviário”, comenta Juliana Cunha, pesquisadora da Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) e pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Economia (IBRE). “Ela continua atrapalhando no sentido de que a incerteza ficou maior desde aquele momento”.

No setor produtivo, a questão dos transportes passou a ser “um componente adicional nas estratégias de negócio” das empresas depois da greve, aponta Alex Agostini, economista-chefe da Austin Rating,. “Outros indicadores passaram a ser acompanhados, como o movimento nas rodovias, os preços dos combustíveis e até riscos de uma nova paralisação”, diz ele.

Nesse sentido, a avaliação é que a greve de 2018 segue impactando a economia em 2019 por adicionar mais um fator de incertezas. “Se você volta com esse potencial risco de paralisação, é claro que o setor (produtivo) fica muito preocupado”, diz Agostini.

Zeina Latif, economista-chefe da XP Investimentos, aponta ainda preocupações sobre um aumento de custos de produção com a discussão sobre o tabelamento dos preços dos fretes. “O setor produtivo já opera com um custo fixo muito elevado, tem que lidar com problemas de infraestrutura. E aí vem uma greve que para tudo, tem um custo que você não recupera e ainda por cima um aumento no custo dos transportes”.

Quanto custou a greve?

Em maio de 2018, os caminhoneiros de todos os estados paralisaram suas atividades por 11 dias, em protesto contra o aumento do preço do diesel e más condições de trabalho. O movimento gerou desabastecimento do comércio, paralisou a produção industrial e prejudicou o agronegócio. Como resposta, o governo congelou o preço diesel nas refinarias até o final do ano e instituiu o tabelamento do preço dos fretes.

Embora seja consenso entre os economistas que a greve tenha puxado o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) de 2018 para baixo, os analistas apontam que é difícil calcular o impacto exato. Um levantamento feito por Juliana Cunha com dados da FGV e do IBRE aponta que o desempenho da economia em geral no ano passado piorou bastante depois da greve dos caminhoneiros – resultado da junção dos choques em diversos setores.

Os números mostram que, enquanto o PIB cresceu 1,8% de janeiro a abril, de maio a dezembro o avanço desacelerou para 0,8%. Crescimento do PIB em 2018 em %, na comparação com o mesmo período de 2017 em %1,81,80,80,8de janeiro a abrilde maio a dezembro00,511,52 Fonte: FGV/IBRE

Considerando apenas o resultado do comércio nos mesmos períodos a variação foi de crescimento de 5,6% para 0,8%. Nos serviços, foi de 2,2% para 0,9%. Na indústria, o choque foi ainda maior. O setor passou de crescimento de 2,5% para queda de 0,3%.

Variação em 2018 dividida por setores — Foto: Rodrigo Sanches/G1

Mas Juliana aponta que não é possível indicar o quanto dessa piora é especificamente reflexo da paralisação. “Não tem muito como separar o que foi a greve”, diz.

Agostini lista outros fatores que ajudaram a puxar a economia para baixo no segundo semestre de 2018. “A greve desregulou toda a parte de produção, estoque do varejo, e isso demorou um pouco para se ajustar. Logo depois, teve o problema da eleição, aquele momento de indefinição que deixou todo mundo cauteloso. Teve também o período de Copa, que acabou afetando um pouco o mês de julho.”

Já Zeina destaca a interrupção do crescimento da produção industrial com a greve. “É um quadro que talvez nem os números consigam estimar com precisão, mas de fato chama a atenção o quanto a dinâmica da indústria mudou depois da greve. Estava indo devagar, mas estava indo. E aí, a gente olha a curva pós-greve, e é uma tendência de queda.”

2 comentários em “1 ano após greve dos caminhoneiros, economistas apontam incertezas que ainda persistem

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